According to a newly published forecast report by Dell’Oro Group, the radio access network (RAN) market remains on track for a fifth consecutive year of growth in 2022 and global revenues are projected to stay above $40 B by 2026.

“Even with the unusual uncertainty surrounding the economy, the war in Ukraine, the supply chains and China’s zero-Covid-19 policy, the baseline scenario assumes that risks have changed but the underlying fundamentals remain healthy,” said Stefan Pongratz, vice president and analyst with the Dell’Oro Group. “Consequently, the more optimistic and pessimistic projections have been modified, but we have not made any major adjustments to the baseline scenario with global RAN expanding further over the near term before decelerating in the outer part of the forecast period, resulting in a flat CAGR in nominal USD terms between 2021 and 2026,” continued Pongratz.  

Additional highlights from the Mobile RAN 5-Year July 2022 Forecast Report:

  • Cumulative 2022-2026 RAN Revenue projections have been adjusted upward, partly due to revised 5G projections in China and North America
  • RAN excluding China is projected to increase while the Chinese RAN market is expected to peak in 2022 before decelerating in the outer part of the forecast period
  • RAN investments in the North America region are also expected to peak in 2022 and give up some gains in the outer part of the forecast period
  • Slower mmWave growth in 2021 is not materially impacting the forecast—mmWave is still projected to account for 2 to 4 percent of the 2022-2026 RAN market
  • Global massive MIMO growth prospects are projected to slow somewhat, reflecting challenging comparisons in some of the advanced massive MIMO markets
  • Small cell RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 6 percent CAGR, underpinned by healthy 5G growth.