According to a recently published report by Dell’Oro Group, near-term Open RAN and vRAN projections have been revised upward to reflect the higher starting point and improved momentum. Global cumulative Open RAN revenues—radio and baseband excluding services—are now projected to approach $20 billion over the next five years and account for around 15 percent of the 2026 RAN market.
“The Open RAN movement continues to trend in the right direction,” said Stefan Pongratz, vice president and analyst at the Dell’Oro Group. “At the same time, we have three separate Open RAN waves right now and they are not all moving at the same pace—greenfields and early brownfield adopters are deploying Open RAN aggressively while the remaining brownfields, which also make up the largest part of the market, remain more cautious navigating this transition,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the Dell’Oro Group Open RAN Advanced Research Report:
- The Asia Pacific and North America regions are projected to dominate Open RAN investments throughout the forecast period
- While the Open RAN movement is not confined to a specific technology, RF output power, spectrum band or deployment configuration—Open RAN macros are expected to drive the lion’s share of the O-RAN capex throughout the forecast period, accounting for more than 90 percent of the market
- vRAN projections have been revised upward to reflect the improved momentum over the past three quarters taken together with new data suggesting the gap between vCU and vDU implementations will likely be smaller than initially expected
- Risks remain broadly balanced. On the one hand, more operators are embracing the movement. At the same time, more operators and vendors are now questioning if Open RAN will boost competition and lower prices.