Industry predictions from Keysight Executives:
Jeff Harris, Vice President, Corporate & Portfolio Marketing at Keysight Technologies
1. Product Recall Rates Will Rise Between 2023 and 2026
The pent-up demand for new products capable of connecting to 5G capacity was already putting pressure on developers before the worldwide pandemic shutdowns. The follow-on supply chain issues, which made many parts scarce, caused rapid redesigns of products using substitute parts, with many not designed to the same specifications. As a result, I expect there will be an increase in product failures as the wave of these products hits the market.
2. DIY Digital Twins Will Drive Up Product Recalls
Faster 5G rollouts are accelerating demand and expectations for adjacent advancements in complex technologies like autonomous driving, new distributed IoT applications, and the rollout of metaverse capabilities. Products involving this level of complexity need to meet more compliance and connectivity standards, operate across a much wider range of often unknown conditions, and are expected to be backward compatible with other systems that are not yet in the market. As a result, I anticipate that product developers will be tempted to build – known as do-it-yourself, or DIY - vs. buy their digital twins. Those taking DIY shortcuts will be leading the spike in product recalls.
Dan Krantz, CIO, Keysight Technologies
1. Deepening Data Divide Will Determine Enterprise Winners or Losers
While monetizing data insights has been an elusive goal for many organizations, the maturation of AI technologies is finally making it possible for companies to organize and actualize their information. The next five years will see these efforts accelerate, and those organizations that can successfully act on their data will thrive. CIOs at these organizations will favor solutions with four factors: low code extensibility, intuitive user experience, and prolific API's for maximum composability, all culminating in breakthrough analytical insights. Those who fail to embrace these capabilities will be mired in an Excel wormhole—the negative financial and competitive consequences of which will be difficult to escape.
2. Talent 2.0: Digital Dexterity becomes Mandatory
Digital dexterity outside the IT function will rise to levels where entire organizations will have basic software development skills. These progressive organizations will differentiate through data science.
3. Automation Impacts Talent Acquisition and Retention
In 2023, automation will remain unaffected-- despite economic uncertainty. And in the coming years, the state of automation and systems will increasingly impact retention. Employees will seek out organizations with intelligent automated systems that allow them to focus on more rewarding and creative tasks. Those enterprises who don’t play ball, remaining manual-first, will find it harder to compete for talent.
4. Software Development Goes to the Robots
We’ve become accustomed to text predictions in our digital communication, but people may be surprised to learn that these capabilities also exist in software development. Some environments have bots suggesting how to finish code, which will become increasingly common in the years ahead. By 2028, more than half of the world's software code will be written by bots as opposed to people.
5. Blending of Physical and Virtual Worlds Will Usher in New Era of Efficiency
2023 will see significant advancement in the form of digital twins being superimposed on physical systems. This will bring numerous benefits to various sectors, ranging from healthcare to manufacturing to retail. For example, imagine if a surgeon could operate with an AI assistant providing input on human anatomy and patient history instead of having to recall these details from memory. This sounds futuristic, but work is already underway to make this a reality. Expect to see more companies cropping up next year to help further blur the line between the physical and virtual worlds.
Dr. Eric Holland, Director of Quantum Engineering Solutions, Keysight Technologies
1. Quantum Poised to Accelerate Complex Design Processes
In the airline industry, it's not uncommon for companies to spend 25 years designing a new polymer that will make planes more fuel efficient, resistant to temperatures, etc. Quantum will significantly accelerate this and other material science design timelines. Rather than spending their entire career on one design cycle, employees will be able to complete the process in a matter of years.
2. Taking a Quantum Leap in the Climate Change Battle
Once quantum demonstrates advantage, it will increasingly be channeled to help fight climate change. For example, improving decision-making through complex modeling and predictions and helping ensure compliance with emission standards.
3. Reducing the Impact of Hurricanes and Weather Events
Before the end of the next decade, quantum will enable meteorologists to better predict the trajectory of hurricanes, winter storms, and other weather events. This will allow communities to better plan and remove any element of guesstimates in determining whether to mandate evacuations or shelter in place. As a result, the loss of life associated with hurricanes and other natural weather-driven disasters will be reduced.
4. Quantum Navigation Will Illuminate Remote Areas
Quantum technology can facilitate navigation in remote areas with minimal satellite coverage, but cost is currently a barrier to adoption. This will begin to change as quantum becomes more prevalent and affordable. I believe that we'll see emergency vehicles equipped with quantum sensors within the next decade—with consumer vehicles eventually following suit.
5. Europe: Hot on US’ Heels with Quantum Adoption
The US is currently leading the quantum computing industry, but by the end of the decade, Europe will reach parity. Increasing privacy regulations is one major driver behind Europe's growth, as having quantum computing capabilities in the region will make it significantly easier to comply with these mandates. In addition, European quantum companies have seen the largest venture rounds and the plethora of universities throughout the continent provide a talent pipeline that can be tapped to fuel new quantum opportunities and use cases. As a result, the US quantum industry will feel increasing pressure to maintain its competitive advantage.
6. Building the Foundation for Quantum
After decades-long hype around quantum computing and quantum systems, the industry will start to realize its potential for creating new opportunities in fields spanning cybersecurity, materials creation, financial analysis and military receivers.
Proactive companies will start investing in quantum, fostering quantum talent within the next generation of workers through university partnerships, hackathons and other projects. This will create an ancillary boost to DEI initiatives resulting in much-needed diversity in the tech workforce. Recent research revealed that 74% of companies believe they will fall behind if they fail to adopt quantum. As a result, organizations will begin to shift their thinking that quantum is a futuristic technology and begin addressing key challenges, including financial resources and operations, and developing real enterprise applications of quantum by 2026, if not sooner.
Thomas Goetzl, VP & GM Automotive & Energy Solutions at Keysight Technologies
1. Electric Vehicles Driving More Integrated and Intelligent Energy Consumption
Within the next decade, electric vehicles (EVs) will become an energy repository for users, whether on the road or in their homes. Intelligent applications will look at calendars to determine the energy required to power the next day's travel and then individuals will utilize the remaining battery for their home energy needs. I predict major power providers will awaken to this possibility by 2025 and realize that EVs pose a clear and present threat to their static grid infrastructure.
2. Construction Industry Goes Green for EVs
To date, EVs have been associated with climate-conscious consumers, but by 2025, expect adoption to come from some surprising sectors. For example, the construction industry stands to reap numerous benefits from utilizing EVs' excess energy to power machinery that previously required cumbersome generators or numerous extension cords to function.
3. OK, Boomer: You Need to Get on Board the EV Train
Younger generations don’t view cars as status symbols and embrace the “Uberization” of vehicles—i.e., the idea that a car just needs to get you from point A to point B with minimal environmental impact. However, the same can’t be said for Boomers and Generation X. In order to meet the greener energy deadlines of 2035, it’s vital that these groups change their thinking and adopt EVs. Expect this to be a key area of focus in 2023, with numerous campaigns aimed at educating older demographics about the need for EVs.
4. The Automotive Revolution
The automotive revolution is reshaping our world, with innovations in both electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous vehicles (AVs) continuing at a feverish pace. But challenges remain in large-scale charging, charging infrastructure and battery technology advances needed to drive range and cost improvements. For example:
- Electric vehicle range anxiety will remain until 300+ miles is standard on a single charge and high-speed charging in under 10 minutes is readily available. Until this happens, commercial vehicles will remain gas guzzlers.
- Electric vehicles will require the adoption of common standards by the entire ecosystem to be mainstream across the globe.
- Battery innovation such as silicon anodes and solid-state batteries, will be needed to overcome many of the barriers to adoption.
Gareth Smith, GM Software Test Automation, Keysight Technologies - Software Automation & Quality
1. Autonomous Test Design
Traditional test automation still requires that the tests themselves are manually written. Model based approaches allow tests to be generated from the central model; Autonomous Test Design takes the next step and automatically generates these models. This means that the model is auto generated as a “Digital Twin” of the system to be tested, and from there the actual tests are auto generated and executed. This further simplifies and optimizes testing to improve quality and reduce release times and, as a result, will become the de facto approach to testing in 2023.
2. Sustainability of Testing
Traditional test automation is based on the need to run a large number of fixed tests at defined periods (overnight, weekends and prior to a release, for example). The execution of each test requires significant computing power and thus has both an energy cost and an environmental impact. With the increase in energy prices and the greater awareness of sustainability, this legacy approach of “non-intelligent” test automation will be replaced by intelligent test optimization – in which the goal is to only run the tests that are known to identify a problem.
3. Metaverse as a Platform
Vendors need to maintain multiple different channels to engage with customers; the web and mobile are the most common, but there are also dedicated mobile apps, kiosks, IoT devices, ATMs, Set To Boxes, etc. In 2023, expect more conversation around the Metaverse as a significant channel for future customer interaction. This adds a significantly different type of channel for vendors to design, build and test for – meaning that most will need a mobile app, a website and a metaverse implementation. Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) can be attributed to Metaverse environments, providing a new way to deliver products and services. Testing the Metaverse adds significant challenges for most test automation technology, which in turn will accelerate innovation in that space.
4. AI to Provide Assurance of Quality and Behavior
With the increasing complexity of a digital-first world, digital products will come under greater scrutiny. This is already high for safety critical systems but expect it to increase in all areas in 2023. The contents of the product, including all constituent parts and third party components, must be itemized and certified – ensuring that all constituents are authentic and original. As products become more intelligent and AI is more prolific across systems and devices, their behavior becomes more nuanced and complex. The testing of these systems needs a more intelligent technology to understand the responses and validate against acceptable behavior – resulting in the need to use AI to test AI.
5. The Rise of the Citizen Developers
With an increasingly digital savvy population, traditional non-technical audiences are becoming technically proficient and confident in using more complex systems. Combined with advances in user experience design and usability improvements, these new non-technical users can develop for their specific needs through low-code or no-code technology – in many cases removing the need for a separate requirements document for a technical team to implement. This reduces time to delivery and the risk of misinterpretation and increases overall efficiency.
1. Cloud Cover to Soften Recession Concerns
The concern over a recession in 2023 will drive more enterprises to shift data intensive tasks to the cloud to reduce infrastructure and operational costs while also improving cybersecurity. Moving applications to the cloud will also help organizations deliver greater data-driven customer experiences. For example, advanced simulation and test data management capabilities such as real-time feature extraction and encryption will enable use of a secure cloud-based data mesh that will accelerate and deepen customer insights through new algorithms operating on a richer data set. In the year ahead, expect the cloud to be a surprising boon for companies as they navigate economic uncertainty.
2. Digital Twin Deployments to Increase Despite Economic Woes
With R&D efficiency a priority in 2023, expect to see increased use of digital twins for system design and testing. This approach enables faster design cycles, more efficient co-design of hardware and software, a more robust product, and reduced costs while also delivering benefits in improved manufacturability and serviceability. In the coming year, anticipate a shift to connected platforms in which complete products are designed and tested via a digital twin.
3. Encryption Advances Bolstering Cloud & Network Security
Organizations have historically been hesitant to adopt network and cloud-based software and services due to security concerns. Expect these to be addressed in 2023 through robust encryption capabilities and greater access control of measurement parameters and data, providing users with unparalleled assurance of data integrity from probe to cloud—and back. As a result, we expect more cloud and network security investments to help enterprises protect the ever-expanding threat surface in the year ahead.
4. Automation: A Lifebelt in a Downturn
In today’s uncertain climate, technology which reduces the need for human labor such as automation and robotics are in particularly high demand. Expect heightened investment in tools that automate repetitive simulation and measurement tasks, ensure the validity of results by catching and fixing errors, and improve measurement quality by eliminating human induced variability. Through these and other automation capabilities, employees will be freed to act on the new insights gleaned and focus on other, more strategic initiatives.
5. Cost of Exploding Data Volumes Driven Down by AI and ML
Automation and AI/ML techniques will emerge to reduce costs associated with managing today’s increasing volumes of measurement data. These technologies will reduce the need for manual analysis of data sets, extract critical metadata, and will also separate measurement errors from true device-under-test failures, which will speed insight and reduce wasted effort.
6. Measurements Critical to Meeting Green Energy Goals
Meeting government mandates and societal imperatives for carbon reduction will continue to be a focus in 2023. AI/ML enabled optimizations based on measurement and monitoring of industrial and commercial infrastructure, such as data networks will drive the next level of energy use management.
Colin Bauer, Market Initiative Manager, Wireless Communications at Keysight Technologies
1. New Olympic Sport: The Metaverse
The 2028 Summer Games will welcome 6G to the global stage. As a worldwide Olympic partner, expect Samsung to unveil a 6G deployment which will be a pivotal part of how viewers consume events. For example, you can expect one of the two Opening Ceremonies to happen in the metaverse.
The metaverse will also feature prominently in the user experience, enabling fans to participate in some Olympic events. We'll also see certain sports and, potentially, eSports run a 6G Metaverse Olympics in parallel with the actual Games, with at least one medal awarded within the metaverse. As brands draw inspiration from the Olympics, there will be a subsequent explosion of 6G use cases throughout 2028.
2. Arrival of 6G Opens the Door to New Mobile Network Operators in the US
The tier one mobile network operators in the US have enjoyed a relatively stable market, but that is poised to change with the arrival of 6G. Similar to how Google Fiber enabled the company to enter into the ISP landscape, I think we’ll see Amazon, Microsoft, or another member of Big Tech capitalize on 6G to become a new tier one mobile network operator.
3. Gen Z & Younger is the 6G Sweet Spot
Ever used a Blackberry? Then 6G is not for you. The network is being built and set up for those currently 25 and under. These individuals are digital natives and they have no reservations about participating in virtual groups or sharing everything online. In 2023 and beyond, expect to see more discussion about how these younger generations will be monetized in 6G.
4. 6G Will Foster a More Geographically Inclusive World—But it Comes at a Cost
Rural areas and remote industries like rail, offshore drilling, or broad mining will benefit from the enhanced connectivity of 6G. In addition, the network's ultra-low latency will further accelerate high-speed finance. But these and other 6G benefits will come at a cost, as the technology will be far more expensive than its predecessors. Given this, you can expect adoption disparities.
5. Spectrum Challenges a Gatekeeper to Further Network Innovation
6G is coming and, while much work remains to actualize its potential, we have enough bandwidth to make it happen. But the industry is running short on spectrum, which will ultimately become a barrier to future technologies. As such, expect the 2030s to focus on solving the spectrum challenges in order to allow future network innovations to thrive.
Roger Nichols, 6G Program Manager at Keysight Technologies
So for 6G (and a few 5G things)—what will 2023 bring:
- Aggressive showcase objectives will become more visible. The 2025 Osaka World Expo as a 6G showcase will become more visible from the Japanese government. The 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles may end up placed on the 6G radar by one of the large American operators.
- 6G (and 5G) spectrum discussion at FCC will be even more heated—the conflict in the 12GHz bands, either under NPRM or NOI will grow as the industries wrangle over how spectrum will be managed in the next decade.
- 5G—the current (misplaced) criticism about 5G not meeting expectations will begin to temper given the growing deployment of Rel-16 and early deployment of Rel-17 capabilities. These will enable the fuller realization of the original 5G vision.
- The ITU will release the radio figures of merit for 6G as part of the ITU-R WP-5D 6G vision work. This will lay the groundwork for the targets that the industry must meet for the specifications to be worthy of IMT-2030
- 5G FR2/mmWave will grow but slowly because: Still requires more improvements in the standard, and continued reductions in the cost of deployment.
What will not happen:
- No standards work will start on 6G. And it is not likely they will start in 2024, either. This is not bad—6G is in research and there is plenty of 5G standards work to be completed before the first study items for 6G begin.
- Agreement will not happen on the killer use-case for 6G
- China will not allocate FR2 spectrum. This will wait until 2024, at least.
Scott Register, VP Security Solutions at Keysight Technologies
1. AI on the Offense
Deepfake technology to date has resulted in political confusion, internet chatter, and some amusing mashup videos, but expect this to change in the near term. Security experts have warned for years about the possibility of social engineering attacks with deepfakes, and the technology has matured enough for 2023 to see hackers successfully leverage it. We will see an increase in image generation, generated audio, and conversations that appear realistic, designed to trick recipients into sharing personal data or other sensitive information. The deepfake threat isn't relegated solely to consumers; we'll likely see threat actors spoof a Fortune 100 CEO in an attempt to defraud or otherwise damage the organization.
2. Hackers in Your Home
With the increased adoption of IoT devices, hackers will no longer be nameless, faceless entities but rather a tangible threat within our smart homes. Expect threat actors to infiltrate webcams, microphones, Smart TVs and other connected devices, demanding money transfers or bank account details. As this happens, IoT manufacturers will have to formulate their response to IoT-based extortion.
3. Hackers’ End Game: Physical Damage
Hackers may have traditionally abided by a quasi-code of ethics to limit physical destruction, but those days are long gone. Expect 2023 to see more targeted OT attacks designed to disable or destroy system availability with the end goal of harming people. For example, ransomware attacks against life-saving equipment in the healthcare sector will become fair game.
4. Evolving Cyber Insurance Industry
Historically cyber insurers have embraced a yes/no approach to coverage based on the company's maturity level and the types of threats facing the organization. Expect this to evolve in 2023, with insurance companies declining to cover more enterprises and also introducing risk-based pricing in response to the dynamic threat environment. I believe we'll see more exemption clauses denying coverage for ransomware and other specific attack types.
Jonathon Wright, Chief Technology Evangelist at Keysight Technologies
Rapidly evolving technologies, including quantum computing, digital twins, artificial intelligence, electrified and autonomous vehicles, as well as 5G and 6G, are powering endless imagination and innovation across all industries.
Product Development with Digital Twins and Artificial Intelligence (AI): Digital twins and AI are transformative technologies promising to dramatically alter the world. While the technologies are not new, real-world use cases will emerge to show just how transformative these technologies can be.
- Digital twins will take on the role of virtual caregivers/companions, allowing seniors to seek help and services when required and live in their homes autonomously longer.
- Digital twins will provide insights that enable humans to understand how decisions impact the world from a sustainability perspective. By modeling the planned change, they will be able to see how the entire ecosystem can be impacted and adjust as needed.