Home Network IC Market to Reach $669 M by 2004

A report from the Cahners In-Stat Group, "Pass the Chips: A Home Network Chipset Market Analysis," forecasts that the emerging enabling technology making it possible to interconnect devices in the home to distribute data, voice and video traffic will lead to a booming market for home networking semiconductors. The report forecasts the home network chipset market will grow from $116 M in 2000 to $669 M by 2004.

While different technologies will share in the distribution of broadband Internet, digital audio and other applications, the study expects that wireless connections will dominate the applications. With the RF portion of the home networking IC market currently representing 10 percent of total units shipped, this share is forecast to grow to 37 percent by 2004.

The study finds that wireless component prices are declining as integration levels increase and more cost-efficient process technologies are employed. It also expects that suppliers of chips involved in DSL, cable or wireless Internet connections will need to consider adding home networking functions to their packages. The report discusses technologies, provides market forecasts and lists vendors in the home networking IC market. For additional information, contact: Courtney McEuen, Cahners In-Stat Group (480) 609-4533.

Report Organizes and Defines Cellular Communications Markets

A report from Web-Feet Research, "Mobile Cellular Communications, 2000­2005," organizes and defines the wireless markets and analyzes the two major network types, the established mobile cellular networks and the new Wireless Personal Area Networks (WPAN). The report discusses the underlying radio access technologies, air interface standards and network architectures of each of the systems. It also provides qualitative and quantitative analyses of the markets, the market drivers, accelerators and inhibitors

The report finds that by 2005 mobile cellular telephony will have overtaken fixed telephony by all measures and that the pre-paid subscription option, despite the fact that it increases the price of mobile calls, is a key mobile cellular market driver. It expects that mobile telephony revenue will grow from $172 B in 1999 to $480 B in 2005. The subscriber base is forecast to increase to 1.8 billion from its 480 million in 1999 and traffic volume will rise from 541 billion minutes to 2074 billion by 2005. While mobile service will continue to be approximately three times as expensive as fixed service through 2005, 680,000 new subscribers per day are expected to acquire mobile phone service in 2005 and only 120,000 per day are expected to sign up for fixed phone service. This will happen in spite of mobile phone calls being forecast to remain on average approximately three times more expensive than fixed calls, 37¢ vs. 12¢ per minute.

The transition to 3G services through the interim 2.5G will enhance the bandwidth and data capability of mobile cellular networks and is forecast to attract 500 million new subscribers in 2005. Sales of 2.5G-capable handsets are expected to reach 550 million units, 45 percent of the year's total and the sale of 170 million 3G-capable phones in 2005 is expected. In total, 2005 is forecast to witness a gain of 250 million new mobile cellular subscribers increasing the total subscriber base to 1.8 billion, the sale of 1.23 billion mobile cellular phones and the rise in Bluetooth unit sales from 45 million in 2001 to 1.05 billion in 2005. For additional information, contact: Alan Niebel, Web-Feet Research (831) 373-1985.

European Fiber Optic Market to Reach $1.6 B in 2005

According to a report from Allied Business Intelligence, "Optical Communications Transmitters: The European Broadband Market," the European market for broadband fiber optical transmitters will grow from $308 M in 1999 to over $1.6 B in 2005, a compound average annual growth (CAAG) rate of nearly 32 percent. While the bulk of the money will be devoted to long-haul networks, this segment of the market will grow only at a CAAG of 21 percent. At the same time, access networks, enterprise networks and metro networks will all grow at CAAG rates exceeding 50 percent.

The Internet, one of the principal drivers of this growth as its data packet traffic is expected to double every nine months, is expected to fuel a major portion of the growth in long-haul, enterprise and metro networks. As in North America, the prospects of multiple revenue streams available from fiber optic cable television networks is supporting the conversion of coaxial cable networks to hybrid fiber-coax (HFC) networks and new installations are being built to eventually compete with incumbent telecommumictions carriers. These revenue streams include premium channel tiers, Internet access via cable modems and cable telephony.

According to the report, individual country fiber optic markets in Europe track the absolute sizes and relative Internet penetrations, as well as degree of globalization. Germany is the clear leader, followed by the UK, France and Italy. Eastern European markets are relatively undeveloped and, while they are expected to grow rapidly, total market sizes will not approach those in Western Europe. For additional information, contact: Allied Business Intelligence, (516) 624-3113.

VSAT Market Report and Forecast

A report from COMSYS, "VSAT Markets and Forecasts Report 2000," reviews and analyzes six discrete VSAT market segments over the past five years and forecasts the total market through 2006. The report credits four major changes in market conditions for its behavior over the past five years and expects that they will continue to influence its future. These are the move from hardware supply to service-based businesses, the search for new service markets and revenue generation opportunities. Increased concentration on "solutions" rather than connectivity and bandwidth and a consolidation of VSAT operators and manufacturers, which is now global.

The report suggests that these changes are largely the industry's attempt to define its own agenda within the evolving telecommunications market, rather than tagging along at the back end of the terrestrial market. It expects that deregulation is a key to the industry's success. From a technical standpoint, the report suggests that TDMA VSAT technology offers an advantage to corporations as they become more IP-centric, but continue to support their legacy protocols. Some major manufacturers have recognized that a streamlined IP-based VSAT system will reduce system costs and the corporate VSAT business is expected to expand. Corporate customers will require increased applications support compared to consumers and VSAT service companies will have to meet these needs.

The report recommends a focus on enterprise sectors which, until now, have not been addressed because the basic terrestrial infrastructure necessary to provide the reach has not been in place. Concentration on the small- to medium-sized enterprise, a sector which is poorly served by major service providers is viewed as an attractive niche for VSAT service providers. It is very large, with millions of potential sites unserved or severely underserved.

While the Internet is having a significant effect on the VSAT business, the report suggests that the effect is different than that seen by the general telecommunications market. With the ability to deploy quickly, scale easily and deliver broadband capability more cost effectively than terrestrial networks, many VSAT networks were established in 1999 for delivery of Internet services to schools, doctors, health clubs, churches and cinemas across the US.

The report provides chart and discussions dealing with 1995 through 1999 Corporate vs. Internet sales, Star TDMA bookings, Mesh DAMA and Rural Telephony data, and a forecast of VSAT terminal bookings by geographical region from 2001 through 2005. Additional information is available at www.comsys.co.uk. *