Strategy Analytics forecasts the global Smart Weapons (SW) market will grow to more than $41.8 billion in 2025, representing a CAGR of 3.5%. The renewed emphasis by the US and allies on advancing SW capabilities to counter evolving threats such as A2/AD (anti-access Area Denial) envelopes, combined with on-going demand from asymmetric wars and continued force modernizations in emerging countries is driving SW spending. The squeeze on military budgets particularly in the Western countries as well as technology advances are translating to adoption of fewer but more capable new SW platforms across domains. The total number of SW shipments is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 3.5% through 2025 to reach 162,943 units. The associated market for SW subsystems will grow from $9.3 billion in 2015 to $13.4 billion.

RF and mmWave technologies underpin a range of subsystems enabling navigation and guidance, fuzing, target seekers supporting a number of trends. These include advances in datalinks, guidance and multi-mode target seeking systems enabling networked and automated missiles. With BLOS (Beyond line of sight) datalinks, mmWave radar target seekers, digital processors and advanced target recognition algorithms missiles are increasingly able to communicate among themselves, change courses with the shifting target positions and reassign themselves to new targets.

Advances in missile survivability in the face of growing enemy EW capability directed against incoming missiles and their electronic systems are being achieved through counter measures such as anti-jam/spoof navigation and guidance as well as target seeking devices, decoy and home-on-jam systems, among others.

The Navigation and Guidance System (NGS) smart weapon subsystem on smart weapons guides the projectile throughout its flight course to the target area. RF-based systems include the use of GPS, which provide precise and cost-effective NGS without the need for pre-recorded information (unlike Terrain Referenced Navigation (TRN) systems). However, the propensity for enemy interference/jamming, and limited performance in tunnels/restricted areas means that GPS-based guidance is often used in conjunction with other NGS systems. However, it is radar-based systems that represent the largest use of RF/mmWave-based technologies in the NGS subsystem. Most SAMs (surface to air missiles) and long range SSMs (surface to surface missiles including both ballistic and cruise missile including anti-ship missiles) use radar as the primary means of guidance, and collectively radar-based SWs represent the second largest segment of the SW market. Radar guidance can be either active or semi-active. In active radar guidance the missile contains a radar transceiver whereas in semi-active radar guidance the missile uses only a receiver to find and track the target. 

  • Semi-active radar guidance enables “fire and forget” capability as the missile works autonomously during the terminal phase.
  • Using an active radar transmitter as the target seeker means the launch platform does not need to guide the missile anymore and is free to conduct other maneuvers.

A Target Seeker (TS) subsystem, also sometimes known as a Terminal Seeker, is normally found in medium to long range missiles, and used in combination with the NGS, for better identification and striking of the target using Active Radar (mmWave), Laser, IR/IIR (Infrared/Inverse Infrared) and Acoustic/magnetic seeker technologies. Radar-based target seeker subsystems account for almost 50 percent of the target seeker subsystem market for smart weapons.

Moving forwards, directed energy weapons (DEW) will fundamentally change how future battles are fought while also providing significant savings on expensive conventional munitions, particularly in air and missile defense (AMD) role. There are simultaneous developments going on around electromagnetic pulsed weapons and high power microwave (HPM) payloads, as well as Laser weapons systems. Strategy Analytics predicts that these weapons will begin to be part of an advanced military’s arsenal over the next ten years. We however envisage that introduction of such disruptive weapons will require fundamental adaptations in organization, training, concepts of operation and doctrine across all domains of the armed forces, resulting in a slower initial uptake of the systems and maintaining the current demand for RF and mmWave technologies across navigation and guidance and terminal seeker applications.