The worldwide RFID market will exceed $5.3 B in 2008, according to a new forecast from ABI Research. Annual revenue growth will increase over the next five years, accelerating over the mid-term as high-growth, high-volume applications such as supply chain management, ID documents, ticketing and contactless payment drive shipments.
Excluding automobile immobilization, the market is expected to experience a 15 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2008 through 2013. Forecasts peg the market at $9.8 B in 2013, or approximately $8.2 B without automobile immobilization.
According to research director Michael Liard, “To a casual observer the five-year CAGR for the RFID market as a whole may not seem impressive at face value. In this case, however, ABI Research notes that traditional applications with single-digit and low-double digit five-year compound annual growth rates continue to dominate current and near-term RFID market revenue share. In terms of overall market growth, if these ‘traditional’ applications – access control, automatic vehicle identification, automobile immobilization and ID documents – are removed from the equation, the 2008-2013 CAGR for total RFID systems revenue exceeds 20 percent.”
ABI Research believes it is still too early to tell what impact the state of the global economy will have on the RFID market. Investments are still being made in RFID companies, consolidation continues, and contracts are being awarded. Liard cautions, “We understand that the impact of economic events is often not immediate, however, and we expect to be in a better position to gauge how the economy is impacting RFID adoption and spending at the end of the year. In our opinion it often takes three to six months for any economic impact to be felt. Many of the vendors and users we have asked about a potential slowdown indicate no real change in RFID projects as yet.”
The latest release of ABI Research’s RFID Forecasts provides extensive data on RFID revenues and unit shipments, segmented by technology, application and vertical market (aerospace & defense, automotive, commercial services, diverse manufacturing, government [non-military], health care/life sciences, retail consumer packaged goods [CPG], retail in store, transportation & logistics, and “other”).