Microwave Journal

RF to Light Update - January 29, 2007

January 29, 2007

First Things First:

The RF to Light 100 rose 0.2% last week to 2486. NASDAQ dropped 0.7% to 2435. The RF semiconductor market rose 3% and stands now at +5% year-to-date. All other market segments changed little.

A survey by Merrill Lynch showed that 41% of domestic fund managers are pouring more money into tech stocks compared to 23% last November. MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) reported 100% profit growth in 4Q06 - stock up 16%. RF Microdevices reported four-fold profit increase and record sales - stock up 13%. Endwave expects 2006 revenues up 25% as backhaul data rates continue to about double every year - stock up 12%. 4Q06 proforma sales of Alcatel-Lucent declined 16% year-on-year and operating profit will just break even compared to 11% margin a year earlier. Qualcomm warns on escalating legal costs to defend their patents. Cingular's customer increase lifts AT&T.

In the News:

US economy shows signs of new vigor; hopes for Fed rate cut fades on Wall Street: the weekly leading index edged up to 4.5% growth rate, UBS investor optimism increased from 90 to 109 (Nov vs Dec). Consumer price index increased to 2.54%. US's technology superiority (versus China) is not in grave danger. In 2005, foreign-invested enterprises produced 58% of China's total exports, but fully 88% of high technology exports. And Taiwan-owned enterprises produced 60% of China's exports of computers and handsets.

PIS (personal investment system):

5 year lows: Conexant, Zhone, Exar, Vitesse, Maxim, Verizon
2 year lows: Alltel joined, Sanmina, Microsemi exited.
5 year highs: AT&T, Nokia joined, Alltel, Oplink exited.
2 year highs: Anadigics, Avaya exited.

New Highs:


New Lows:


Market Oversold Indicator:

up to 80% (80% indicates that the market is oversold).

Market Overbought Indicator:

up to 60%

Top Five:

Last Week:

Memc (+16%), RF Micro (13%), Endwave (12%), Corning (10%), Texas Instruments (9%)

Year to Date:

Memc (34%), Harmonic (22%), ATC (20%), Spectrum (17%), RF Microdevices (16%)

Bottom Five:

Last Week:

Conexant (-10%), Alcatel-Lucent (-10%), Vitesse (-9%), Zhone (-8%), Avici (-7%)

Year to Date:

Bookham (-29%), Rogers (-12%), Conexant (-12%), Motorola (-11%), Advanced Energy (-10%)

Microsoft Excel Document
Approx. 1MB .ZIP File; Broadband Connection Highly Recommended

The RF to Light 100 is an abstract of the RF to Light 100 Pulse of the Industry Report, produced by industry veteran Gunter Vorlop.

The full report includes extensive economic data covering 100 public companies operating in markets that include space & defense, communications services, network systems, RF semiconductors, RF components and F/O components. It includes 12 spreadsheets with charts that are updated weekly, providing financial insight into the microwave industry for investors and corporate managers.

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Views and data expressed herein are solely those of Mr. Vorlop and not of his employer, Presidio Components Inc. nor those of Microwave Journal.

By Sectors:

Space & Defense:

-1%,YTD 0%

Communic. Services:

-1%, YTD +1%

Network Systems :

-1%, YTD 0%

RF Semiconductors:

+3%, YTD +5%

RF Components:

+1%, YTD -1%

F/O Components:

0%, YTD 0%


+1%, YTD 0%