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Industry News

The Commercial Market

September 1, 2001
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The Commercial Market


Broadband Fixed Wireless Market Declined 35 Percent in 1Q01
Sales of broadband fixed wireless, point-to-multipoint equipment declined 35 percent quarter to quarter to $150 million in 1Q01, according to a Dell'Oro Group report. Alcatel continued its leadership with a 35 percent market share.

According to the report, the market decline in 1Q01 was due to both seasonality and a weak North American market. "Over the next 12 months, sales of 3.5 GHz and 26 GHz products sold in Europe, Latin America and Asia will be key to driving growth while the market in North America is likely to remain weak. North American service providers are reducing their capital spending levels as well as delaying major infrastructure expansion ahead of new, non-line-of-sight technologies," said Greg Collins, a director at Dell'Oro Group. Ultimately, non-line-of-sight technologies in both licensed and unlicensed spectrum will enable broadband fixed wireless products to challenge DSL and Cable Modem technologies in connecting business and residential users to the Internet.

The report focuses on point-to-multipoint basestations and point-to-multipoint client/network termination devices. Coverage includes details on market sizes and vendor market shares in each of the following areas of spectrum: 2.4 GHz (unlicensed), 2.5 GHz MMDS, 3.5 GHz, 5 GHz (unlicensed), 10.5 GHz, 24 GHz, 26 GHz, 28 to 31.5 GHz LMDS and 38 to 39 GHz. For more information, contact Dell'Oro Group, Cheryl Funke, at (650) 622-9400, ext. 222, or visit the site www.delloro.com.

Broadband-over-airwaves Will Gain Considerable Popularity in the Next Five Years
Wireline technologies enjoy a near-complete dominance of the broadband market today, but wireless technologies will use their superior reach and lower deployment costs to encroach on this dominance in the near future, according to the soon-to-be-released report, "Broadband Delivery in the Local Loop: By Land and By Air."

Wireless broadband subscribers, accounting for a mere 2 percent of all users in 2001, will constitute 15 percent of the total broadband subscriber base in 2006, according to the study. Total revenues from broadband subscribers will increase from $16.8 B in 2001 to $59.4 B in 2006, with wireless technologies making a leap from 9 percent of total revenues in 2001 to 22 percent of all revenues in 2006.

The report segments the broadband market into nine categories: DSL, cable modems, ISDN, fiber optics, LMDS, MMDS, satellite, millimeter radios and other technologies. Shipments and revenue forecasts for each category are provided through 2006. Analyses of key market players, including service providers and hardware and software manufacturers, are also included. Details of these studies can be found at www.alliedworld.com, or call (516) 624-3113 for more information.

Active Microwave Modules Market in North America to Exceed $3.4 B in 2005
A new report entitled "Microwaves North America III - Active Microwave Modules - Markets to 2005," forecasts that the overall available markets (TAM) for this class of microwave products will grow from the expected $2.4 B level this current year to exceed $3.4 B during 2005. The study includes detailed market data on the following classes of microwave products: electronic switches (chiefly MMIC-based), VCOs, DROs, YIG oscillators, linear amplifiers, WLAN chipsets, frequency synthesizers and other relatively complex function modules. There are full profiles of 13 major players as well as an extensive industry directory.

Every year a substantial lead is taken by frequency synthesizers with markets for these types of modules forecast to be worth over $750 M in 2001 and to exceed $1 B in 2005. Next ranked are WLAN chipsets and linear amplifiers, in that order.

In most instances, the current economic slowdown is having only marginal effects on these markets that are mainly fuelled by the strong growth in sectors such as WLANs, broadband satellite and the imminent 3G mobile. There are also substantial and slowly extending opportunities in the defense sector. For additional information on this report, contact: Terry Edwards, Engalco (international), +44 1904 767 019.

Nokia to Deliver a GSM 1800 and GPRS Network for Cellcom in Israel
Nokia and Cellcom, an affiliate of BellSouth, have signed a contract for the supply of GSM 1800 and GPRS infrastructure for Cellcom in Israel.

Under the agreement, Nokia will deliver a complete GSM 1800/GPRS network, which will enable Cellcom to offer its customers state-of-the-art mobile services and "always-connected" access to mobile data. The deal is subject to Cellcom gaining a GSM 1800 license in the upcoming frequency auction.

The agreement calls for the supply of core and radio-access network equipment for both GSM and GPRS. This includes Nokia GSM mobile switching centers, home location registers, basestation controllers and Nokia UltraSite basestations, as well as GPRS core network infrastructure. The Nokia GPRS core includes the Serving GPRS Support Node, the Gateway GPRS Support Node, the Domain Name Server, the Charging Gateway, firewalls and Ethernet switches. Nokia UltraSite basestation answers the increasing demand for higher voice and data traffic in today's mobile networks, as well as the evolution to the Mobile Internet era. An industry-leading product, Nokia UltraSite basestation can support GSM, high speed data, GPRS, EDGE and UMTS for 3G technologies.

In addition, the agreement calls for related professional services including the installation, commissioning and integration of the GSM/GPRS network, and a maintenance contract. For further information on this report, visit www.nokia.com.

Europe Leads a Bright Outlook for Bluetooth
Revenues from Bluetooth-enabled products could reach $333 B by 2006, a new market survey says.

Bluetooth technology, under development for six years, is coming of age with Europe taking the lead in embracing the technology and buying Bluetooth-enabled devices. Of the countries surveyed, all three testing Bluetooth products are European.

Despite lengthy delays, Bluetooth-enabled devices are "set to slowly revolutionize communications," the study concluded. Still, the technology must overcome the "confusion and caution" of the telecommunication market, especially in light of problem-plagued third-generation wireless services and the disappointing showing of Wireless Application Protocol technology.

The survey of about 120 network managers found that "end users are, in principle, willing to embrace Bluetooth technology. End users see flexibility and convenience as its biggest benefit."

Teething problems, such as interoperability, robustness, interference and perceived security flaws, must also be overcome. Concern over security was the most common problem cited. End users said they expect interoperability issues to be resolved before products roll.

Shipments of Bluetooth-enabled devices are forecast to jump from 4.2 million to 1 billion between 2001 and 2006. During that time, revenues would rise from just under $2 B to $333 B, thanks to "Bluetooth anticipation sweeping the global personal computer and cellular phone industry."

With standard version 1.1 now being certified and more than 100 products qualified, rollouts may have cleared the biggest hurdle. The study said Bluetooth now needs to gain market acceptance. Additional information on this report can be found at http://www.eetimes.com/.

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