Opportunities for the emerging 802.15.4 Wireless PAN (WPAN) technology, and the imminent ZigBee network layer, look promising according to In-Stat/MDR. Using an aggressive scenario, annual shipments will surpass 150 million units in 2008. And, based upon discussions with system providers, the high tech market research firm believes that the closer silicon vendors can get to a “ZigBee in a box” solution, the greater the opportunities will be. Although the ZigBee specification release is expected in 4Q04, these rollouts do take longer than expected, and market acceptance does not happen as quickly as many would like. Yet, overall, positive progress is being made to get systems onto the market. 2004 has been the year of development, or the year of silicon, while 2005 will be the year of pilots and test markets, with 2006 as the year of the solution when ZigBee really flies.


In-Stat/MDR has also found that:

• Commercial building control is expected to capture the lion’s share of the up-and-coming 802.15.4 market, while residential automation and industrial applications will follow.

• Although other frequencies, or channels, may open up in China and Europe, these changes do not occur very rapidly. In-Stat/MDR continues to see the lion’s share of the worldwide 802.15.4 market being dominated by the 2.4 GHz band; however, significant activity is occurring for 915 MHz solutions, primarily in North America.

• Movement in the industry indicates that ZigBee stack will co-exist with other networks and network stacks, and a number of companies are working on developing solutions that enable many different flavors of embedded gateways and bridges.

The report, “The 802.15.4 Buzz: Providers Want ‘ZigBee in a Box,’” provides an overview of the technology and markets, with forecasts for 2004-2008 by application frequency band, geographic region, external host MCU vs. single package, and two forecasts of node/chipsets (units, revenue and ASP) — one aggressive and one conservative. For more information, please visit: www.instat.com/catalog/scatalogue.asp?id=3.