The growing sophistication of naval platforms will be offset by long production cycles and spiraling costs that will limit the overall opportunity for communications systems and resulting demand for radio semiconductors. The recently published Strategy Analytics Advanced Defense Systems (ADS) data model, “Naval Communications Platforms - Advanced Electronics Component Forecast,” projects initial growth followed by a flat market for naval communications through 2020.
The total naval communications market is projected to grow from an estimated $488 M in 2008 to a peak of $680 M in 2011, before falling off to slightly less than $500 M in 2020. This Strategy Analytics analysis also segments the communications systems down to their constituent radio electronics and semiconductors. The market will approach $85 M by 2020.
“Naval platforms play a significant role in network-centric battle strategies. This translates into multi-band and higher frequency requirements for these radios,” noted Asif Anwar, Director of the Strategy Analytics ADS Service. “Despite the development cycles and cost of these naval platforms, which will keep the quantity relatively flat, increasingly challenging radio requirements will create attractive opportunities for suppliers.”
This data model also highlights dynamics in market segmentation. Total market values are segmented by geography, naval platform, function and device process. Based on this segmentation, Strategy Analytics estimates that the United States is the dominant consumer and Silicon is the dominant technology. Strategy Analytics predicts Silicon will remain dominant, but GaAs devices will be increasing market share over the period and will be making an appearance by the end of the forecast period.